OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

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OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

Abstract: This study examines the impact of Oil Price Volatility on Industrial Output in Nigeria between 1980 and
2019. The study makes use of both descriptive and quantitative analyses. The data for the variables were sourced
from World Development Indicator (WDI, 2022). From the descriptive analysis, the graph shows that both oil price
Volatility and Industrial Output are fluctuating throughout the period under review. While under the qualitative
analysis, GARCH is employed in one hand to establish the presence or otherwise of Volatility in Oil Price in Nigeria
and ARDL is also used in other hand to investigate the impact of Oil Price Volatility on Industrial Output in Nigeria.
The results shows from GARCH confirm the presence of Volatility in Oil Price in Nigeria, while the ARDL results
indicate that, Oil Price Volatility has positive impact on Industrial Output in Nigeria both in short-run and long-run.
Based on these findings, the study therefore recommends that government should put-in-place policies that promote
macroeconomic stability and also refocus her attention on how to make our local refineries functional and produced
up to their installed capacity in Nigeria.

KEYWORDS: Oil Price, Volatility, Industrial Output, GARCH and ARDL.

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