Prediction of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption in Indonesia Using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation: An Integrated Model Implementation

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Prediction of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption in Indonesia Using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation: An Integrated Model Implementation

ABSTRACT: The Indonesian government has implemented policies to promote Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption to reduce carbon emissions. However, challenges like insufficient infrastructure, reliability concerns, and high costs hinder personal EV adoption. This study integrates behavioral theories (TPB, TAM, UTAUT) into Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to simulate Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Indonesia.The research aims to understand TPB’s applicability in ABM simulations for BEV adoption dynamics and emphasizes the importance of model calibration. It provides insights for decision-makers, highlighting ABM as a tool for shaping regulations during green transitions. Findings suggest that increasing supporting infrastructure, manufacturers’ support, and promotional policies could significantly boost BEV adoption, with government regulations having the most positive impact. The study also noted a discrepancy between simulated and empirical sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that global events can negatively affect domestic green transitions.

KEYWORDS – Green transition, electric vehicle, agent-based modelling, technology adoption

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